#BizTrends2026 | Fruit SA’s Fhumulani Ratshitanga: The global certainty deficit and its impact on agriculture

Fhumulani Ratshitanga, CEO, Fruit SA

At the core of this certainty deficit lie geo-economic shifts, geopolitical battles, climate volatility, trade protectionism, and energy price shocks – amongst other issues.

The global economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook 2025 has projected a global economic contraction from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The IMF largely attributes this reduction to a prolonged certainty deficit, protectionism and labour supply shocks.

In a clarion call to policymakers, the report advocates for restoration of confidence through credible, transparent and sustainable policies.

The South African economy

Compared to countries like Germany, Brazil and Japan, South Africa is a relatively young democracy, having entered a new dispensation in 1994.

Back then, the South African economy was characterised by a profound structural crisis, a low growth equilibrium, and ubiquitous economic exclusion and underdevelopment.

The period since 1994 has seen the South African economy undergo profound restructuring and steady integration into global markets, followed by significant growth. In fact, the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) highlights 2004–2007 as the period that recorded the fastest South African economic growth since the 1960s (GDP increased by 4.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2007).

However, since 2007, the economy has experienced significant shocks and irregularities, with Statistics SA reporting the Q3 2025 quarter-on-quarter growth rate as only 0.5%.

Global agriculture

Fifty years ago, the global agricultural context was typified by a localised environmental certainty deficit; simpler, less integrated supply chains with less sophisticated logistics ecosystems; and low digital dependence.

The modern-day agricultural landscape largely reflects the opposite and has absorbed notable shocks related to the certainty deficit, such as a reduction in trade volumes, GDP growth, and an appetite for foreign direct investment. Add to this, the adversely shifted risk profile of farmers, processors and traders around the world

South African agriculture

After deregulation in 1997, the South African agriculture sector experienced expanded markets that fast-tracked trade.

This shift from relative scarcity that emanated from state-led control boards and price fixing to the complexity of a free-market system has had its fair share of challenges.

These include often misaligned legislative and regulatory changes – local and abroad – the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and the related effects of lockdown, the Russia-Ukraine war, and US “reciprocal” tariffs.

The post-deregulation world has also thrust local agricultural players like fruit producers – who had operated in an insular environment – into a fiercely competitive global market context where other competing countries boast free trade agreements and more competitive prices.

On the bright side, South African fruit producers do have some leverage. The integration and transformation of the global fruit value chain present significant advantages, such as better export opportunities.

Granted, evolving global consumer trends have increased the pressure on the local agriculture sector and certainly the fruit industry, in terms of production methods and cultivar choices.

However, this also offers an opportunity for better consumer education, and closer and broader collaboration and synergy among local players and their counterparts elsewhere in the world.

The South African fruit industry

The goal of Fruit SA – the representative umbrella body of the local fresh fruit industry – is to build a competitive, sustainable and inclusive future for industry value chain players.

Growth, employment and equity rank high on this agenda. Industry players have pursued these, guided by the focus areas of government and stakeholder relations, market access, and transformation.

But climatic inconsistencies, limited free trade agreements, infrastructural setbacks, and rising costs of production on the back of a rising global certainty deficit have made for a tumultuous ride locally.

Certainty and trust are mutually inclusive

We cannot trust that which we are uncertain about.

The growing certainty deficit is eroding trust. And a trust deficit hampers progressive trade and economic growth.

So, what is the way forward for agriculture and the global economy?

As the IMF report states, "if the goal is to restore global certainty, trust and confidence, policymakers must formulate credible, transparent and sustainable policies".