South Africa's agricultural jobs growth possibilities

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But of course this hasn't materialised as, amongst other things, we have not moved as a country on many of the prerequisites for such employment creation. The prerequisites included the release of government lands with title deeds to appropriately selected beneficiaries, improving land governance in the former homelands, and investments in infrastructure, among other key interventions.

Therefore, the potential that first arose in national discussion remains a possibility from now on. We have to get things done, as I argued in the book, A Country of Two Agricultures.

Tracking jobs in an uneven recovery

Against this backdrop, it is also helpful to monitor the high-frequency jobs data in the sector, especially this year, which can be categorised as an uneven recovery. Some subsectors are doing well, mainly horticulture and field crops, and others that remain constrained, such as the livestock and poultry industries.

On August 12, 2025, Statistics South Africa released its Quarterly Labour Force Survey data for the second quarter of this year, which gives us insights about the farming jobs. The data shows that the South African farm jobs have declined mildly from the first quarter of this year by 3% to 906k in the second quarter.

We see the quarterly decline mainly in the livestock industry, some field crops, and aquaculture. This could be linked to specific challenges these industries are facing, particularly the foot-and-mouth disease in cattle farming in South Africa.

We also think the delays in harvesting some summer crops may have also weighed on employment conditions. We experienced an unusually long and rainy summer season in 2024-25.

Annual trends show a brighter picture

Still, we gain some encouragement in noticing that from an annual perspective, the overall farm employment is up 1% from the second quarter of 2024.

The annual uptick is consistent with the robust production in field crops and horticulture that we see in the country. For example, the Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds harvest at 18.74 million tonnes, up 21% y/y.

South African sugar production for the 2024-25 production season is forecast to recover by 7% year-on-year to 2.09 million tonnes. Moreover, South Africa's wine grape harvest was 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from the exceptionally poor harvest of 2024.

The South African Table Grape Industry has also posted some upbeat production figures, indicating that the 2024-25 total harvest inspected is 78.9 million cartons, 4% higher year-on-year. We also see encouraging production data across various fruits and vegetables.

The only subsectors that have lower employment levels compared to a year ago are mainly aquaculture, forestry, and organic fertiliser production. Still, the employment of 906k is far above the long-term average level of 799k jobs, signalling that while the sector faces challenges, the employment conditions remain at encouraging levels.

Regional job shifts

From a regional perspective, the Western Cape, Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Gauteng are the provinces that registered quarterly job losses. Meanwhile, other provinces saw mild quarterly job gains.

In essence, as South Africa's agricultural sector continues to struggle with foot and mouth disease in the cattle industry, which will add financial pressures to the livestock industry, and lingering trade concerns, there remain some risks to South Africa's farming jobs.

Still, we doubt there may be significant losses as the better harvest in the various labour-intensive subsectors provides some cushion. Notably, the trade matters are also concentrated on the U.S. market, and not across all of South Africa's agricultural export markets.

Beyond these near-term matters, there are long-standing challenges that continue to constrain South Africa's agricultural growth and the employment prospects. These challenges include the poor rail and roads, crime and stock theft, and worsening municipal service delivery.

Unlocking land for growth and employment

Notably, the release of the government-owned land to appropriately selected and deserving beneficiaries, along with the improvement of land governance in the former homelands, remains another key intervention for kickstarting the long-term growth of the sector and the employment possibilities.

The government’s owned land can make a meaningful contribution, as it is sizable, around 2,5 million hectares. If fully utilised, there could also be positive economic spinoffs in the various communities.

In the current environment of low growth and high unemployment, this is even a more urgent step for growing this sector and unlocking employment growth possibilities.