"The annual trend is for cash withdrawal values to increase steadily month on month from September through to December each year and this year has been no exception," says Marc Sternberg, MD of Spark ATM Systems.
The October 2011 value is also 1.74% up on the value for October 2010 of R408. The Index has been showing this positive year-on-year trend throughout 2011. All months except June have seen an increase on the corresponding month of 2010.
"Especially positive is that October 2011's value is the fourth highest ever recorded by the SCI, since its launch in September 2007. As every month this year has been up on last year, there is a strong possibility that December 2011's value will be the highest measured. Consumer positivity is definitely on the increase, as is the value of cash in circulation, which is great news for retailers and business owners ahead of the upcoming festive season."
Stats South Africa's Retail Trade Sales (RTS) values follow the same pattern as South African cash withdrawal values. Released two months ahead of the RTS, the SCI figures therefore predict the pattern that RTS will follow. The RTS can therefore be expected to follow the same upward trend from September to October this year, as the SCI has done.
The SCI is a real-time gauge of consumer spending, utilising the company's countrywide network of over 1500 ATMs to reflect accurate, broad and timely cash demand and utilisation data. The ATMs are typically located in convenience stores, petroleum stations, specialist retail nodes and leisure and hospitality venues.
The value for the SCI value is obtained using the formula: Cash dispensed for the month divided by the number of cash withdrawals for the month across a selection of its ATM networks. The sample size is hundreds of thousands of transactions in both urban and rural areas across all nine provinces of South Africa, therefore representing a very good cross-section of South African consumers.
The data presented is raw data and has not been adjusted for seasonality or for the effects of inflation.
