South African mining production and sales are back, baby!

Workers are seen underground at a mine near Pretoria. Image credit: Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo

Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA) chief economist Bongani Motsa says if the trend in mineral sales continues, total mineral sales are projected to reach R995.5 bn in 2026 with a significant positive contribution to the fiscus.

Motsa believes that the uptick in production and sales highlights the critical role mining plays in the South African economy.

“The projected increase in corporate taxes by mining yet again proves the relevance of the sector, not only in contributing to the government revenue, but also in catalysing sustainable economic growth.

“It is therefore imperative for policymakers to effect enabling policies that would support and attract investment in the mining value chain,” says the economist.

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The numbers

Production

Following a 2.5% y-o-y increase in March 2026, the strength of the April outcome should be interpreted against the low base of April 2025, when total mining output contracted steeply by 7.7% y-o-y.

That decline marked the fourth consecutive y-o-y drop in production volumes during 2025.

The April 2025 contraction was mainly driven by lower output across key commodities given the heavy rainfall in Q12025, which severely impacted PGMs output (down 24.1% y-o-y in April 2025), coal (-1.7%), and gold (-2.5%).

Collectively, these commodities account for more than 60% of South Africa’s mining production.

Accordingly, the 8.2% increase in mining production in April 2026 should be viewed partly as a recovery from the weak production levels recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The commodities that contributed the most to the increase in the positive production growth include:

• PGMs (+36.5% and contributing 8.8 percentage points).
  
• Manganese ore (+19.0% and contributing 1.3 percentage points).
  
• Chromium ore (+17.5% and contributing 1.1 percentage points).

Consistent with the trend observed in the previous year, coal production declined and was the largest negative contributor to overall mining production growth.

Coal output decreased by 5.8%, subtracting 1.5 percentage points from total mining production.

Recent developments suggest that coal production in South Africa is likely to remain supported in the near term by Eskom’s ongoing baseload requirements.

These commodities represented 44.8% of the total mining production basket.

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Sales

Year-to-date (Jan-Apr) mineral sales amounted to R332bn, representing a 36.5% increase compared to the same period in 2025.

The largest positive contributors to the increase in mineral sales were:

• PGMs, which increased by 120.3% to R27.9bn.
  
• Gold, which increased by 12.2% to R19.5bn.
  
• Chromium ore, which increased by 34.8% to R7.3bn.
  
• Coal, which increased by 8.1% to R16.1bn.

Price developments in April 2026 (y-o-y):

• Coal: +18.7% ($105.9).
  
• Gold: +46.5% ($4 720).
  
• Iron ore: + 8.4% ($109.4).
  
• Palladium: +60.7& ($1 516).
  
• Platinum: +110.5% ($2 017).
  
• Rhodium: +85.4% ($10 063).