The first major shock
This weekend there were some very good line-ups that gave supporters the first glimpse of what the pressure of World Cup rugby can do to teams. The first real humdinger was Ireland vs Australia and that also produced the first major shock of World Cup 2011. I believe that 95 percent of the knowledgeable people in world rugby would have predicted a win for the Australians. These perceptions would come from the fact that they had beaten New Zealand in the Tri-Nations final and that they have a very dangerous back line that can break any defence. The Irish, however, had other plans and they managed to break the Australians by putting pressure on the Australian forwards. This pressure then translated to the very dangerous Australian backs and their game fell apart.
We South Africans are never sad when the Aussies lose a game, but I am afraid that this victory has done us no favours. If all went according to plan we would end top of our Pool D and then we would play the second team in pool C in the quarter-finals. Everybody was expecting Australia to top that pool and Ireland to come second. Now the Irish should end top of their pool and we will play Australia in the quarter-final. If we manage to beat them then we will play New Zealand in the semi-final. In 2007, we managed to win the World Cup without playing New Zealand or Australia, but this year will be very different.
What the Irish victory has shown is that a more conservative approach does work in the World Cup and that an attractive style of rugby doesn't always work. New Zealand will be very nervous after the Irish victory as they always play a very expansive game. The northern hemisphere teams always have big strong forwards and good goal kickers, and they will be a threat in New Zealand as many of the games are played in northern hemisphere conditions.
The Boks will be smiling this morning after demolishing the Fijians with a very clinical performance. We have to be realistic about Fiji as they are not a great side, but there were some very encouraging things that came out of the game. The most encouraging thing for me is that the Springboks started to carry the ball more through the phases and didn't just kick away possession. I truly hope that they will take that confidence into Namibia and then into the Samoan game. The Samoans showed that they will be no walkover as they pushed Wales right to the final whistle.
The cat is truly amongst the pigeons in this World Cup and I look forward to the game between New Zealand and France this weekend. The French have always been a thorn in the Kiwi side, and it will be interesting to see how New Zealand handle the pressure. My money is on New Zealand to win, but as I mentioned earlier the northern hemisphere sides will gain a lot of confidence from the Irish victory. The Boks should cruise past Namibia and cement our position at the top of Pool D. One thing is for sure and that is that this time next week we will have a much clearer picture of what the play-offs might look like. Have a great week.
