Concerns over possible 'censorship' of the internet

Google's Vint Cerf says that he believes the Internet will get more intuitive through the use of artifical intelligence algorithms. Image: Wikipedia

The Pew Research Centre said a majority of experts and others in the opt-in survey were generally optimistic about internet freedom but that a significant number of others expressed their concerns.

"The experts in this survey noted a broad global trend towards regulation of the Internet by regimes that have faced protests and stepped up surveillance of Internet users," Pew said in its report.

"They pointed out that nations such as Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey have blocked Internet access to control information flows when they perceived content as a threat to the current regime. China is known for its 'Great Firewall,' seen as Internet censorship by most outsiders, including those in this poll."

Pew said 35% of those taking part in the survey agreed with the statement that by 2025 "there will be significant changes for the worse and hindrances to the ways in which people get and share content online."

65% of those polled remain optimistic about the Internet

Microsoft's Danah Boyd says data sharing is likely to become more fragmented over time. Image: Microsoft

The remaining 65% of those in the survey were optimistic that the Internet would avoid these issues, but some of them added comments suggesting they were not entirely confident.

The report is not based on a random poll, but instead on an opt-in survey of people deemed experts or affiliated with certain organisations, taken between November 2013 and January 2014.

"While the majority of the survey respondents remain optimistic about the Internet's long-term future, they also have concerns about the turf wars emerging as these technologies mature," said Janna Anderson of Elon University and a co-author of the report.

"Many experts worry that, if ignored, these problems could change the fundamental nature of this crucial information system," she added.

Specialists and experts

Those surveyed were affiliated with a variety of Internet-related organisations such Yahoo, Intel, IBM, the Oxford Internet Institute, and universities including Princeton, Yale, Brown, Georgetown, Carnegie-Mellon and others.

Stanford University Professor Paul Saffo believes governments will become more skilled at block information they don't want citizens to see or know. Image: Stanford University

Some chose to remain anonymous while others offered comments on the record.

Among the issues driving changes in the Internet, the respondents said, were Edward Snowden's revelations about National Security Agency (NSA) surveillance, and widespread data breaches like the one affecting millions of customers of retailer Target.

"The pressures to balkanize the global Internet will continue and create new uncertainties. Governments will become more skilled at blocking access to unwelcome sites," said Paul Saffo, Managing Director at Discern Analytics and Consulting Associate Professor at Stanford University.

Danah Boyd, a research scientist for Microsoft, said: "Because of governance issues (and the international implications of the NSA reveals), data sharing will get geographically fragmented in challenging ways. The next few years are going to be about control."

Jillian York of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, said: "Censorship still poses a major threat to communications worldwide. More than one-third of those who access the Internet are accessing a censored version of it and that number continues to grow."

But Vint Cerf, Google Vice President and co-inventor of the Internet protocol, was more optimistic.

"The Internet will become far more accessible than it is today - governments and corporations are finally figuring out how important adaptability is," he wrote.

"AI (artificial intelligence) and natural language processing may well make the Internet far more useful than it is today," he added.